Show Date: August 17, 2005  
Pam Eastlick for THE DEEP on line

RUSSIA
FIRE AND ICE

Greetings and welcome to The Deep column and the deepest radio show on Earth. The Deep is the science talk radio program that takes you from the depths of the ocean to the farthest reaches of the universe. This week on The Deep, aired at 6:00 this evening on K-57, we’ll talk about the vast country of Russia and some very interesting news happening there. Then we’ll have our expedition calls segment, some science news updates and we’ll be taking your phone calls. Tune in tonight and join host Jim Sullivan, Pam Eastlick and our expedition coordinator Peter Melyan for the latest in scientific news! Then log on to www.thedeepradioshow.com for more information on all the latest and deepest news!

SIBERIAN THAW
One of our recurring concerns and themes on The Deep is global warming. Scientists have been warning for years that world-wide warming could cause unstable ice shelves on the South Pole continent of Antarctica to slide into the sea, thus raising the level of the world ocean to unprecedented heights. But there hasn’t been much concern about the ice in the Arctic at the North Pole because it floats on the water and if it melts, it would cause little change in sea level. That lack of concern about warming in the north polar regions has been eroded by a study just published in the research journal New Scientist.
According to that article, a vast expanse of western Siberia is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming. The discovery was made by Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in western Siberia and Judith Marquand at Oxford.

They found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometers, (much larger than Texas) has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that, as it thaws, it will release billions of tons of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.

"When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply," said David Viner, a scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. "This is a big deal because you can't put the permafrost back once it's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will ramp up temperatures even more than our emissions are doing."
Scientists are particularly concerned about the permafrost because as it thaws, it reveals bare ground that warms up more quickly than ice and snow, and so accelerates the rate at which the permafrost thaws. The permafrost is likely to take many decades at least to thaw, so the methane locked within it will not be released into the atmosphere in one burst.

But calculations show that even if methane seeped from the permafrost over the next 100 years, it would add around 700 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year, roughly the same amount released annually from the world's wetlands and agriculture. It would effectively double atmospheric levels of the gas, leading to a 10 to 25 percent increase in global warming.

But that’s not the only danger posed by thawing in the north polar regions. As previously stated, when Arctic ice melts, it doesn't raise the ocean levels or threaten coastal communities with flooding. The sea ice merely changes form when it melts. As the ice above the surface melts, its weight decreases, so it displaces less water. At the same time, the melted ice adds more water, so the ocean level remains the same.

But there is still reason to pay attention. Water from the Arctic Ocean plays an important role in Northern Hemisphere weather. The powerful Gulf Stream current moves warm water from the tropics past the east coast of the United States and Canada and northwestern Europe. If the Arctic continues to melt, and cold water pours south past Greenland, some scientists fear the Gulf Stream will be diverted. Without that warm water, heavily populated areas around the northern Atlantic might suffer bitterly cold winters.
Could global warming be the cause of Arctic melting? And could that melting, ironically, make some places colder? Global warming, global chilling. We’ll talk about all of it, and perhaps some ideas to stop the effects tonight on The Deep.

SIBERIAN FIRE
We talked about the Asian peninsula Kamchatka last week on The Deep when we interviewed our correspondent Alexei Ilyichev about the dramatic rescue of the trapped Russian submarine. The sub became entangled in wires on the bottom of Berezovaya Bay. But there’s more news from Kamchatka.
The Kamchatka Peninsula is one of the most active volcanic regions in the world. Over a hundred volcanoes stretch across this land mass, and 29 of them have currently active vents. An expedition of Russian, British and American volcano experts is starting research at the Klyuchevskoi, Shiveluch, Bezymyanny and Tobalchik volcanoes in the central region of the peninsula. The results of the research will be used for computer modeling of processes deep in the volcanoes.
Shiveluch, which is 3,283 meters high (about 10,800 feet), is the northernmost volcano in Kamchatka. The western part of its dome was completely destroyed when the volcano erupted on 27 February 2005 releasing an ash cloud that spread 700 kilometers westward, covering the peninsula and the adjacent area of the Sea of Okhotsk with a 150-kilometer wide ash strip.

	The highest Eurasian volcano, Klyuchevskoi, last erupted in January-May this year. Hundreds of tons of lava poured from the volcano’s crater that partly melted two glaciers. The eruption of the 1,500-meter (around 4,930 feet) high Karymsky volcano has continued periodically since January 2, 1996. Karymsky is one of the most active of the 28 active volcanoes on the peninsula. The last eruption of Tolbachik happened in 1976 and it was the first to have been predicted with absolute accuracy. The eruption changed the surrounding terrain and caused an environmental disaster that wiped out all life in a radius of several miles.
Klyuchevskoi Volcano
Here on Guam, we also live with active volcanoes in our back yard. Being able to predict their violent eruptions would be a great help. Join us tonight as we discuss active volcanoes and what they mean.

Whether we’re learning about global warming or active volcanoes, The Deep, hosted by Jim Sullivan with Pam Eastlick and Peter Melyan is the place to be on K-57 tonight at 6:00 p.m. Don’t miss it!