Update: April 4, 2007

WHAT ARE THE ODDS...REVISITED

By Pam Eastlick for THE DEEP on line

Welcome to The Deep science and technology column where we cover topics from the deep sea to deep space and beyond.

We’ve had some really interesting stories lately and one that caught my attention last week was the one about the close encounter a Chilean airplane had with something falling from the sky.  Several fireballs were seen from the aircraft accompanied by a loud roar.  That would certainly take my mind off the movie!  Initial reports said that the plane had encountered debris from a Russian rocket; but the time frame was wrong and most experts now think that the plane encountered a rogue meteor over the skies of the southern Pacific. 

We’re also being menaced by a typhoon as I write this and a tsunami watch is in effect for Guam after a massive 7.6 earthquake in the Solomon Islands to the south.  Although most of Guam isn’t vulnerable to tsunamis (something I discussed in this column last November); we certainly don’t have any magic bullet against Typhoon Kong-Rey.  So in the face of all these disastrous news stories, I thought it might be time to revisit an earlier column to discover just what you should be afraid of.

One of the best things about my job at the University of Guam Planetarium is the chance to talk to the kids (and adults) after the show.  And one of the things that absolutely fascinates me is what kids worry about.  They want to know if we’re all going to be pulled into a black hole (no chance), get run over by another planet (no chance) or die when the Sun explodes (the Sun won’t explode; it isn’t big enough).  And many of them are convinced that like the dinosaurs, we’ll all die in an asteroid impact. 
We won’t die in an asteroid impact.  Ninety-nine point nine per cent of all asteroids live in the Asteroid Belt between Mars and Jupiter and are always millions of miles away from Earth.  There are a few rogue asteroids that cross Earth’s orbital path, but we know where they are because they’re big and easy to see and none of them are on a collision course with Earth.

But Earth does cross the path of millions of objects smaller than asteroids.  Earth, the spaceship you ride every day of your life runs over about 1,000 objects a day as we circle the Sun at 66,000 mph.  Most of them are dust and sand grains.  A rock smaller than 50 feet on a side burns up entirely from friction with our air and never hits the ground (it was probably a rock that was initially smaller than 50 feet that was seen by the Chilean airline passengers). 

Bigger rocks called meteors do hit the Earth, though.  Seventy percent of them land in the water; since the world ocean covers 70% of our planet.  We hit roughly two rocks a week that leave remnants that punch all the way through to the surface. 

About once a century, we get hit by a meteor that was originally the size of a football field.  These rocks can do serious damage if they hit land.  A rock about this size blew up over Tunguska, Siberia in 1908.  A rock has to be at least a mile in diameter to have global effects and it was a meteor about 6 miles across that took out the dinosaurs.  It will happen again; there are lots of big rocks out there with “Earth” written right across the front.

So . . . what are the chances that it will happen in your lifetime?  What are the odds that you’ll die in a meteor impact?  Should you be scared like the little kids that come into the Planetarium?
For that matter, what WILL kill you?  Nobody gets out alive you know; something will cause your death.  So what should you be afraid of?  Meteors?  Tsunamis?  Earthquakes?  Environmental pollution?  Airplanes?  Cars?  There are people who worry about these odds as a profession (and I suspect most of them work in the insurance business).  So let’s examine your chances.

Dying in a meteor impact ranks way down at the bottom.  Your chances of checking out under a big rock are 1 in 200,000.  Interestingly enough, those odds are pretty high when you consider that we have no recorded information about anyone ever dying in a meteor impact.  And they are high because when the big one comes in, it will destroy lots and lots of real estate and many (most? all?) people will die.
Because of the potential destruction, those odds are lower than your chances of dying in a tsunami, which are 1 in 500,000.  If the big one hits, it won’t make any difference where you are on Earth, but in order to die in a tsunami, you have to be on a coast, which reduces your chances.

Your chances of dying in an earthquake are significantly higher at 1 in 132,000.  Mother Earth is restless and we do insist on living in inadequate housing on fault lines.  Here on Guam we’re at risk, but our houses, are, as a general rule adequate, as the 10th largest earthquake in recorded history proved.
Do you worry a great deal about dying in the electric chair?  To help you gain some perspective on these odds; your chances of dying in a legal execution in the United States (all these statistics are for the U.S.) are 1 in 58,000.  Since I have no worries about my criminal activities, those odds sure make me feel better about the earthquake, tsunami and meteor impacts!

But you might want to think again about getting on that airplane.  Your chances of being hit by a meteor while on board are vanishingly small, but your odds of dying in an airplane crash are 1 in 20,000.  And you might also want to stay out of the water.  Mama Ocean does not forgive, and your odds of dying by drowning are 1 in 9,000.

Mother Nature isn’t very forgiving in general, and your odds for dying by natural forces which includes typhoons, earthquakes, tsunamis, lightning strikes, tornados, floods, blizzards (I’m not too worried about that here!) and all the other ways that Mother Nature can do you in, are definitely creeping up there at 1 in 3,000.

Don’t smoke in bed.  As a matter of fact, don’t smoke at all and definitely don’t use matches or be around anyone who does.  Your chances of dying by fire or smoke are 1 in 1,100.
Next up is a chilling statistic.  Guns may not kill people (people kill people); but your chances of dying by gunfire are a whopping 1 in 325.  I guess I should start telling the kids that they need to be much more afraid of Daddy’s handgun than that meteor.

If you are really worried about how you’ll die and you want to know what you should be afraid of, sell the car immediately and never get in another one because your chances of dying in an automobile accident are 1 in 100.  I’m always amused by people who are afraid to fly.  They should really be afraid to cross the street.

So, what’s the real killer?  What should you really be afraid of?  Well, it isn’t meteors, or typhoons or tsunamis or earthquakes, or airplanes or cars and we all harbor the weapon in our homes.  Your chances of dying of heart disease are 1 in 5 and the weapon is the fork.