This equation is better than older prediction methods, because it takes into account the energy feeding these storm systems and the amount of friction that slows them down. Current models make assumptions about these variables, rather than using actual quantities.
The scientists used the model to quantify how intense they expect storms to get based on current climate predictions. For every 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit that the Earth's surface temperature warms, the intensity of storms could increase by at least a few percent, the scientists say. For an intense storm, that could translate into a 10 percent increase in destructive power.
This new model helps explain the formation of spiral bands and wall clouds, the first clouds that descend during a tornado. It's clear now that they are the result of a pressure drop where the airspeed has increased. The model is the first thermodynamic model that unifies all convective vortices from dust devils to typhoons. Looking at all of them can help researchers understand what makes them form and change."
The model bolsters studies by others who say hurricanes have grown stronger over the past 50 years as sea surface temperatures have risen. This effect has not been extreme enough for humans to notice without looking, scientists say but it is definitely there.
So I guess we'd better prepare for stronger typhoons than ever!
And now we'll turn from typhoons to that other big factor in Guam's weather; rain. People who come to our islands from the mainland US, where the annual rainfall is measure in inches, sometimes have difficulty getting used to a place where the annual rainfall is measured in feet (seven to eight feet on average). So how will global warming affect that?
WHEN IT RAINS . . . .
Many scientists think that global warming will produce more extreme weather events. One likely scenario is that heavy rainstorms will become more common and more intense in a warmer climate because of the increased moisture available for condensation. More intense rain increases the risk of flooding and this can have dire consequences.
To understand how precipitation responds to a warmer climate, researchers in a study conducted at the University of Miami used naturally-driven changes associated with El Niņo as a laboratory for testing their hypotheses.
Based on 20 years of satellite observations, they found a distinct link between tropical rainfall and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods.
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A warmer atmosphere contains larger amounts of moisture, which boosts the intensity of heavy downpours. The researchers found that both observations and models indicated an increase in heavy rainstorms in response to a warmer climate. Here's the kicker though; the observed amplification of rainfall extremes was found to be substantially larger in the observations than what was predicted by the mathematical models.
Might I suggest that buying that property in the flood plain is a really BAD idea? I also find it fascinating that the satellite photo that accompanies this article shows a very familiar corner of the world and some very heavy rainfall. |
So we're beginning to get a handle on how global warming could affect us humans, but what about the animals?
WE'VE WAITED SO LONG!
Global warming is melting the North Pole ice cap at an unprecedented rate. Although the predictions had been that the Arctic Ocean will be completely ice-free by 2050, scientists have been steadily revising that date downwards. Although there's been much speculation about the effect on human economies when the Northwest Passage opens permanently there will be some other consequences as well.
According to researchers from the University of California at Davis, as the Arctic Ocean, shellfish, snails and other animals from the Pacific Ocean will resume an invasion of the northern Atlantic that was interrupted when the northern ice cap formed three million years ago. Several north Pacific species have relatives in the north Atlantic, and according to the fossil record many of these north Atlantic species showed up just before global freezing cut off easy access between the two halves of the global ocean. As the ice melts, the northward march of the mollusks will resume where it left off three million years ago. The researchers that about one third of the species of shallow water shellfish in the Bering Sea, have the potential to spread to the Atlantic.
But the invaders will not wipe out native species. The fossil record shows that invasions rarely lead to species extinction in marine environments, he said. Instead, the invasion will add new species and hybrids and increase competition in the North Atlantic.
But the invaders will not wipe out native species. The fossil record shows that invasions rarely lead to species extinction in marine environments, he said. Instead, the invasion will add new species and hybrids and increase competition in the North Atlantic.
No matter who wins or loses in this evolutionary struggle, things are going to change. What will it mean for local fisheries? Who knows? But there is one certainty. Global warming will mean a whole new world for virtually all its inhabitants!
And now, in aid of cleaning out that still overstuffed medical folder, here's a couple of quick stories that are of special interest here in the islands.
NO MORE NEEDLES
A new medical study conducted by a VA doctor has found that some patients with type 2 diabetes can control their disease for years without insulin injections by using multiple classes of oral diabetic medications. Oral diabetes medications help control blood sugar levels in people whose bodies still produce some insulin, as is true for many patients with type 2 diabetes.
It had been felt that long-term use of oral diabetic medications didn't work because the oral drugs lose their effectiveness over time as the patient's pancreas fails. The new data suggest that some patients can remain in good glucose control for years using oral diabetic agents.
This is great news for diabetics who may be able to delay or avoid the use of insulin. Some patients prefer pills over insulin injections because they are easier to use or because the patient fears needles or getting low blood sugar, as is possible with insulin treatment.
The researchers studied the VA medical records of 191 veterans (188 men and 3 women) with type 2 diabetes who received treatment beginning in 1992 and received follow-up for 15 consecutive years. Of these patients, 96 began treatment solely with oral drugs. The researchers found that 55 percent of the patients (53 of 96) who started treatment with oral diabetic agents were able to continue using them 15 years later and achieve good blood sugar control.
Of the 96 patients, 45 percent eventually switched to insulin, either alone or in combination with oral drugs. At the beginning of the study, the duration of diabetes was similar between these patients and those who remained on an oral drug regimen. However, the group of patients who stayed on oral medications throughout the study had a lower beginning A1c and were less obese than patients in the other group, the authors reported.
Great news for all the diabetics among my readers! And now here's another story that promises great news about a tropical killer.
CONTROLLING DENGUE
Researchers from Maryland and South Carolina have developed a novel four-component vaccine that protects monkeys against all four strains of dengue virus and could offer protection to the millions of humans at risk worldwide.
The four strains of dengue virus cause more than 100 million annual infections worldwide. Tropical regions are at especially high risk where infection with dengue can produce symptoms that range from mild to the potentially fatal forms of hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome.
In the study, researchers developed their dengue virus vaccine by combining genes and proteins from all four dengue virus types as well as incorporating an adenovirus agent. Vaccinated rhesus macaques showed high antibody levels that neutralized all four dengue virus types.
Since dengue infection is always just over the horizon here, it's good to know that a vaccine just could be on the way.
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